| MA 117 Probability and Statistics Math - Block 4 - 2001 |
| Reading in preparation for Day One: |
| Chapter One | |
| pp. 3 - 6. Read about the Salk vaccine field trial. |
1. In reference to the paragraph on p.5: "Experience shows, however that human judgement often results in substantial bias:" Which election poll for which presidential election suffered from bias arising from human judgement? (Refer to chapter 19, and class discussion). 2. Are doctors not reliable people? How could it arise that a doctor would misdiagnose a case of polio? 3. What are three differences between the two groups in the NFIP study (i.e. the control and treatment group?)
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| Read pp. 7 - 10 about the Portacaval shunt. |
4. What is the main difference between the control and treatment groups in this example? 5. What if anything would be wrong with using a historical control to determine if the Salk vaccine was effective or not?
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| Chapter Two | |
| Read pp. 12 - 13. | 1. Read about smoking as an observational study. What difference is there between the control group and the treatment group in any study on smoking? |
| Read Section 2, pp. 13 - 14. | 2. The
clofibrate trial was a controlled experiment. How do we know that the
treatment did not save any lives?
3. Why is the clofibrate example in the section on observational studies? Is it both a controlled experiment and an observational study? What is the connection here? |
| Read pp. 15 - 17. | 4. In each of the examples 1 2 and 3 on Pellagra, Cervical Cancer and Circumcision, and Ultrasound birthweight connections, determine some of the confounding factors. |